DegenSeatbeltPublic Seatbelt Ledger
Every daily Seatbelt is logged automatically and reviewed at the close. No hindsight edits to the verdict.
2026-07-29Trap Day · 30%
Main risk: The dollar + rates + valuation pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
2026-07-28Trap Day · 29%
Main risk: The dollar + rates + valuation pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (28%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.0%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-27Trap Day · 30%
Main risk: The dollar + rates + valuation pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (28%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.0%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-24Trap Day · 27%
Main risk: The dollar + rates + valuation pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeHITCalled Trap Day (32%) before the open. Close: SPX -1.2%, NDX n/a. Caution was warranted.
2026-07-23Trap Day · 32%
Main risk: Valuation + the dollar + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (33%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.1%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-22Trap Day · 33%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
2026-07-21Trap Day · 36%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeMISSCalled Trap Day (36%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.9%, NDX +1.3%. Too cautious today. Logged as a miss.
2026-07-20Trap Day · 34%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (34%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.0%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-17Trap Day · 34%
Main risk: Valuation + the dollar + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeHITCalled Trap Day (34%) before the open. Close: SPX -1.0%, NDX -1.4%. Caution was warranted.
2026-07-16Trap Day · 34%
Main risk: Valuation + the dollar + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeHITCalled Trap Day (34%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.5%, NDX -1.5%. Caution was warranted.
2026-07-15Trap Day · 38%
Main risk: Valuation + the dollar + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeMISSCalled Trap Day (38%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.6%. Too cautious today. Logged as a miss.
2026-07-14Seatbelt On · 42%
Main risk: Valuation + the dollar + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (42%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.9%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-13Seatbelt On · 40%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + the dollar pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (40%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.8%, NDX -1.6%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-10Seatbelt On · 42%
Main risk: Valuation + the dollar + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (42%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.3%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-09Trap Day · 40%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (40%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.8%, NDX +1.3%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-08Trap Day · 35%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (35%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.3%, NDX +0.2%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-07Trap Day · 39%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeHITCalled Trap Day (39%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.4%, NDX -1.2%. Caution was warranted.
2026-07-06Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (47%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.7%, NDX +1.1%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-03Trap Day · 36%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
2026-07-02Trap Day · 35%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (35%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.0%, NDX -0.8%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-01Trap Day · 36%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (36%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.7%. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.