DegenSeatbelt

Public Seatbelt Ledger

Every daily Seatbelt is logged automatically and reviewed at the close. No hindsight edits to the verdict.

2026-10-20Trap Day · 36%
Main risk: Credit + the dollar + valuation pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
2026-10-19Trap Day · 38%
Main risk: Credit + the dollar + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeHITCalled Trap Day (38%) before the open. Close: SPX -1.1%, NDX n/a. Caution was warranted.
2026-10-16Trap Day · 32%
Main risk: Credit + the dollar + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 52 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeMISSCalled Trap Day (38%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.3%, NDX n/a. Too cautious today. Logged as a miss.
2026-10-15Trap Day · 37%
Main risk: Credit + the dollar + valuation pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeHITCalled Trap Day (30%) before the open. Close: SPX -1.1%, NDX n/a. Caution was warranted.
2026-10-14Trap Day · 31%
Main risk: Valuation + the dollar + credit pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (32%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.0%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-10-13Trap Day · 32%
Main risk: Valuation + the dollar + credit pressure
Biggest trap: Dollar Squeeze Risk: strong dollar tightening conditions
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (34%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.1%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-10-12Trap Day · 40%
Main risk: Valuation + credit + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (40%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.6%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-10-09Trap Day · 34%
Main risk: Valuation + credit + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeHITCalled Trap Day (35%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.5%, NDX n/a. Caution was warranted.
2026-10-08Trap Day · 33%
Main risk: Valuation + credit + the dollar pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (33%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-10-07Trap Day · 32%
Main risk: Valuation + credit + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeMISSCalled Trap Day (32%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.6%, NDX n/a. Too cautious today. Logged as a miss.
2026-10-06Seatbelt On · 41%
Main risk: Valuation + credit + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (41%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.7%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-10-05Seatbelt On · 40%
Main risk: Credit + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (47%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.7%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-10-02Seatbelt On · 41%
Main risk: Credit + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (43%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-10-01Seatbelt On · 43%
Main risk: Credit + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Credit Crack Risk: spreads widening under the surface
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (41%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.3%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-30Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + credit pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (48%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-29Seatbelt On · 42%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + credit pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (41%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.8%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-28Seatbelt On · 41%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + the dollar pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (44%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.5%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-25Seatbelt On · 45%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.0%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-24Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (47%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.8%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-23Seatbelt On · 45%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.0%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-22Seatbelt On · 51%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (51%) before the open. Close: SPX +1.5%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-21Seatbelt On · 52%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (54%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-18Seatbelt On · 49%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (42%) before the open. Close: SPX +1.1%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-17Seatbelt On · 42%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + sentiment pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (42%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.4%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-16Seatbelt On · 41%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (41%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.4%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-15Trap Day · 38%
Main risk: Rates + valuation + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (45%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.5%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-14Seatbelt On · 52%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (44%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.9%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-11Trap Day · 38%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Duration Smash Risk: yields pressing risk assets
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (45%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.6%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-10Seatbelt On · 45%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Complacency Rug Risk: stretched tape, thin cushion
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (45%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.5%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-09Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Complacency Rug Risk: stretched tape, thin cushion
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.6%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-08Seatbelt On · 46%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (45%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.4%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-07Seatbelt On · 52%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (52%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.4%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-04Seatbelt On · 44%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX +1.1%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-03Seatbelt On · 45%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (45%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.5%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-02Seatbelt On · 44%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Complacency Rug Risk: stretched tape, thin cushion
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.7%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-09-01Seatbelt On · 51%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (53%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.3%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-31Seatbelt On · 52%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (54%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-28Seatbelt On · 46%
Main risk: Valuation + inflation + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (48%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.7%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-27Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: Valuation + structural debt + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (47%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.0%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-26Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: Valuation + structural debt + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.3%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-25Seatbelt On · 51%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (51%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.3%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-24Seatbelt On · 51%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (50%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.4%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-21Seatbelt On · 43%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + inflation pressure
Biggest trap: Complacency Rug Risk: stretched tape, thin cushion
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (45%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.9%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-20Seatbelt On · 45%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (45%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-19Seatbelt On · 45%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Complacency Rug Risk: stretched tape, thin cushion
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.7%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-18Seatbelt On · 51%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (53%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.5%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-17Seatbelt On · 52%
Main risk: Valuation + structural debt + rates pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (52%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-14Seatbelt On · 46%
Main risk: Valuation + structural debt + rates pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.7%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-13Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: Valuation + structural debt + rates pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.3%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-12Seatbelt On · 46%
Main risk: Valuation + structural debt + rates pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (42%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.3%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-11Seatbelt On · 41%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.1%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-10Seatbelt On · 51%
Main risk: Valuation + structural debt + rates pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (47%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.6%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-07Seatbelt On · 43%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: IV Crush Trap: cheap vol into rich prices
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (47%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-06Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Complacency Rug Risk: stretched tape, thin cushion
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (43%) before the open. Close: SPX -0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-05Seatbelt On · 42%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Complacency Rug Risk: stretched tape, thin cushion
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (44%) before the open. Close: SPX +1.8%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-04Seatbelt On · 47%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Complacency Rug Risk: stretched tape, thin cushion
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Seatbelt On (46%) before the open. Close: SPX +1.5%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-08-03Seatbelt On · 46%
Main risk: Valuation + rates + structural debt pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: Normal sizing is supported; still avoid buying elevated premium into events.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (40%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.7%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.
2026-07-31Trap Day · 32%
Main risk: The dollar + valuation + rates pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeMISSCalled Trap Day (21%) before the open. Close: SPX +1.7%, NDX n/a. Too cautious today. Logged as a miss.
2026-07-30Trap Day · 24%
Main risk: Sentiment + the dollar + volatility pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeHITCalled Trap Day (30%) before the open. Close: SPX -1.5%, NDX n/a. Caution was warranted.
2026-07-29Trap Day · 29%
Main risk: The dollar + rates + valuation pressure
Biggest trap: Call Chase Trap: index strength on weak breadth
One rule: No full-size premium buys until open validation improves: breadth confirms, VIX fades, and dollar/rates stop pressing.
High confidence · 53 live/proxy · v1.3.0
Close gradeFLATCalled Trap Day (29%) before the open. Close: SPX +0.2%, NDX n/a. Neutral read, quiet close. Graded flat.